US involvment in Georgia

Russia stays in key points around South Ossetia, creating a buffer zone (brown belt.)


A bigger map of South Ossetia:

Russia started the invasion into Georgia after Georgia attacked South Ossetia, an independence-seeking region of the country after the fall of the USSR. Unlike its own people, the UN never recognized Oessetia's independence.

The media at large commented on Russia's invasion to Georgia; however, the attack on South Ossetia which preceded it is poorly covered by major media outlets. According to several sources, Russia sees Georgia as a tool in the hands of the US administration. To reinforce their statement, they pointing out the fact that 2000 Georgian troops left the Iraqi campaign in order to defend their own country.

In 2002 the Bush administration set up an 18-month, $65m programme aimed at training and equipping Georgia's impoverished army.

The programme was part of America's war on terror and it started after the US confirmed Russian allegations about the presence of Chechen and al-Qaeda fighters in Georgia's Pankisi Gorge, on the border with Chechnya.

Details are still to be announced of the new permanent programme, but analysts say that any sort of US military presence is good news for the Georgian Government, which sees the US engagement as a security guarantee against Georgia's northern neighbor - Russia.

The US has been helping the Georgian army for the last 4 years, and American involvement in the ongoing conflict was to be expected ( from EUCOM):

In the spirit of the NATO Partnership for Peace program, soldiers from the United States, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Ukraine will conduct the joint training exercise IMMEDIATE RESPONSE 2008 at Vaziani Military Base in Georgia beginning July 5, 2008.

The operation took place at the Vaziani Military Base (41.6947 , 45.0467), about 50 miles from the conflict zone. Is it possible that American soldiers who was actively involved in training and supplying Georgian soldiers also fought the Russians? Is it possible that American soldiers have died by the hands of the Russians, or worse, were taken is POWs?

Dennis Ross writes about "The Art of Possible Peace."

The More Things Change, the More They Stay the Same

In a speech from the White House library, President Bush claimed responsibility for the failing Iraqi campaign and offered means to deliver victory: 20,000 additional troops into Iraq.

"The situation in Iraq is unacceptable to the American people, and it is unacceptable to me," he said. But unlike most Americans -- those in congress and ordinary citizens -- Bush's solution is to "help the Iraqis carry out their campaign to put down sectarian violence and bring security to the people of Baghdad." In order to do so, "I've committed more than 20,000 additional American troops to Iraq," said the President to millions of viewers worldwide.

In his speech, the President explained the major problem with the old strategy was insurgents returning to cleared villages and neighbourhoods after U.S. forces left. This time, however, "we'll have the force levels we need to hold the areas that have been cleared," said Bush. He also explained that Iraqi Prime Minister, Nouri al-Maliki, will allow U.S. troops to enter neighbourhoods and areas they could not before. The first such neighborhood that comes to mind is Sadr city, formally known as Saddam city, a poor neighborhood in northern Baghdad which serves as a home and base of operations for the Mahdi Army, a powerful Shiite militia lead by Shiite clerk Moqtada al-Sadr.

Perhaps it will work this time around, some say, due to one major difference: Maliki's advisers publicly threatened Sadr in front of the media.

According to Time magazine, "top Maliki adviser Sadiq al-Rikabi criticize Sadr: 'You cannot be in the government and working against the government at the same time. You cannot be a part of the government while breaking the law. If you're going to be a part of the government, you should respect the institutions of the government.' " An AP article on Yahoo news goes even further: "Iraq's prime minister has told Shiite militiamen to surrender their arms or face an all-out assault by U.S.-backed Iraqi forces, senior Iraqi officials said Wednesday," it reads (credit goes to LGF).

Sadr has been Maliki's poppet for a long time. When U.S. forces tried to raid Sadr city, Maliki condemned the attack, arguing the real enemies of the democratic government are Sunni extremists associated with Al-Qaeda. Maliki is a Shiite at the head of an almost exclusively Shiite Iraqi government. He has never previously dared to go against Sadr, a highly-regarded political and religious Shiite figure, even though the Mahdi Army was behind several attacks on U.S. soldiers and carried out many raids against the Sunnis, contributing to the overall sectarian rift in the country.

But the reporters only spoke to Maliki's advisers, not to him directly. And Maliki has learned the rules of the game. While President Bush has proved beyond any doubt that he is a man of his word - for better or for worse - he doesn't seem to realize that his Iraqi counter pendent t is far from it. Maliki could sing a completely different tune in a couple of weeks, when American forces are standing ready to charge into Sadr city.

Sadr is rooted well within the Iraqi government, as Rikabi claimed. His Shiite Militia has many followers, all of who would like to see a Shiite country come into being, with the Sunnis having no part in it.

Even the most optimistic Bush-believers would have hard time explaining the "respectable manner" in which Saddam was executed by hanging in a warehouse-looking facility. His executioners praised Sadr three times, chanting his name, as they launched Saddam unto his death. Sadr is more than just a political figure, he is a saint to government officials. It is highly doubtful anyone in the Iraqi army will dare to attack him or his malitia directly, even if Maliki actually lives up to his word.

The Syrian Perspective

Struggling with a worsening economic situation, Syria finally gets a break: The Iraqi Study Group (ISG) report helped put "banned" Syria back on the Western diplomatic map, allowing it to talk to the U.S. and other Western powers present in the Middle East.

Senator Bill Nelson of Florida met with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Damascus, defying the Bush Administration policy. President Bush officially signed Executive Order 13338 in March 2004, a doctrine which restricts financial and diplomatic connections with the country.

An article from the Syrian Tishreen, a Syrian-government newspaper and a mouthpiece for President Assad, reports that the Syrian leader met with Nelson and discussed ways of "scheduling [timely] withdrawal from Iraq and preserving its unity." Discussions also included the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the accumulating Lebanese crisis. An article from the Israeli newspaper Haaretz quotes Senator Nelson saying "Assad 'clearly indicated a willingness to cooperate' in controlling its border with Iraq." The article also brings forth the controversy between Syria's willingness to help now with Iraq, whereas it was highly critical of the invasion in 2003.

However, The U.S. Administration remains doubtful and suspicious of Assad's willingness to help. White House Press Secretary Tony Snow told the media "We've talked to Syria. We have diplomatic relations with Syria. I think it's a real stretch to think the Syrians don't know where we stand or what we think. It's not as if there's been failure to communicate. The communication has been crystal clear."

And the Administration has been doing more than just hinting that Syria's regime is not a trustworthy partner in the new post-Saddam Middle East. Time Magazine claimed that "The Bush Administration has been quietly nurturing individuals and parties opposed to the Syrian government in an effort to undermine the regime of President Bashar Assad," on December 19. The article reported that "part of the effort would be run through a foundation operated by Amar Abdulhamid, a Washington-based member of a Syrian umbrella opposition group known as the National Salvation Front (NSF)." This report created echo in the Middle-Eastern Bloggers' community, mainly due to the fact that Amar Abduhlamid is a blogger himself. (in a response to the Time's article, Syrian blogger Abdulhamid claims that while he would "really like to see our illustrious regime overthrown and reconciled to the dustbin of history (to borrow a term that is so dear to the hearts of regime spokesmen), news of my involvement in such “sinister” plot come as news to me as well. I was never aware of that fact that I was that creative.")

The plot's existence was later approved by the U.S. government in an article published by the Jerusalem Post.

Syria had been ruled by the Assad family since 1970, when Hafez al-Assad took control of the country by force during a military coup. Bashar al-Assad, his son, took his place as the head of state in the year 2000. Syria's Alawite leadership represents about 10 percent of the population (According to the CIA Factbook , Syria's Alwites, Druze and other minor Muslim sects together represent about 16 percent of the country's total population), while the majority Sunnis make about 75 percent of the population of the country.

Syria's economy is highly dependent on agriculture and oil. According to the Wold Bank Website, "Syria’s GDP is highly dependent on the oil and agriculture sectors, both subject to uncertainties due to changes in oil prices and rain dependency respectively. The oil sector provides half of the government’s revenues and about two thirds of its export receipts. The agriculture sector, for its part, contributes to about 30 percent of GDP and employment." It also predicts oil reserves in the country are going to deplete in 10 to 15 years.

In an interview for this blog, Dr. Ely Karmon of the Israeli Institute of Counter-Terrorism in Israel explained that the Syrians are mimicking Iran by negotiating with the West - they would say one thing at the table and then a completely different version to their own people and militant allies, like the Hezbollah.

Another point of interest for Syria, according to Karmon, is Iranian nuclear race: Syria and Iran already have a strong diplomatic (and military) connection; if Iran succeeds with its nuclear plans, Syria will follow suit, using Iran as their excuse. The Counterterrorism blog has more information about Syria's nuclear status: "new reports show that Damascus is up to no good. Indeed, while world attention is rightly focused on the nuclear capabilities of Iran and North Korea, Syria has been quietly — but quickly — advancing its own secret nuclear program," writes Olivier Guitta, one of the blog's contributors.

Regarding the Syrian heating situation with Israel, Karmon explains that what really interests the Syrians is their control of Lebanon. They are not really worried about Israel attacking them: "The Syrians know that Israel and the U.S. are worried that if the [Syrian] government will collapse, a new and more radical leadership will emerge," he explained, contradicting the logic behind the plot discussed above. An article from a certain Lebanese news-site (unfortunately, the link is lost) reviled that Lebanese authorities and military recently found weapons and explosives in a Syrian-loyal political party center in Southern Lebanon, further proving the existence of Syrian influence in the country.

Media reports from Israel suggest a coming war with Syria as early as next summer. The Syrians have been watching the June war in Lebanon carefully and learned an important lesson, a similar to the one Americans learned in Iraq. An article in the Jerusalem Post affirms just how literally the Syrians have taken the "Hezbollah way": "villages recently built by Syria along the border are planned to be used as "death traps" for IDF troops in Hizbullah-inspired attacks. Since this summer's war in Lebanon, Syria... has invested large amounts of money in replicating Hizbullah military tactics, particularly in establishing additional commando units and fortifying its short- and long-range missile array."

Eyes on Syria

With the publication of the Iraqi Study Group report, some focus has shifted from Iran and its nuclear program toward the role of Syria in the Middle East.

Ashar Al-Assad has enjoyed increasing popularity in recent days. He is slowly entering a peace-negotiator shoes, with the Palestinians, Israel, Lebanon and Iraq all on his plate, under the watchful eye of the West and the U.S. in particular. Assad "urged Russia to take a leading role in sponsoring peace talks in the Middle East" yesterday, according to the The Lebanese Daily Star.

Israel remains skeptical regarding Assad's proposal for peace. The Golan Heights dilemma is probably the center of discussion. Lebanon, for its part, does not want the Syrians to interfere with their politics, even though the latest demonstrations, still in Beirut, strengthen Hezbollah and the pro-Syrian opposition to the government there. Meanwhile, the U.S. demands that Syria stop allowing insurgents cross into Iraq through its borders.

Syria's role is going to be crucial in the next few days, as it has indirect control on all 3 civil wars going on in the Middle East: In Gaza, in Lebanon and in Iraq. It should be watched carefully.

The Third Civil-War

The attempted assassination on the Palestinian Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh escalated the "minuscule" civil-war between the Hamas and Fatah Palestinian fractions in Gaza last week.

Haniyeh's son and one of his advisers were wounded and one of his personal body guards was killed in the attempt.

In a speech yesterday Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas affirmed that he is going to carry on with general elections, giving the Hamas-led government "last chance" for a unity government with the Fatah, according to officials there.

President Mahmoud Abbas comes from the Fatah party, while Haniyeh, the prime minister, is the head of the Hamas party in the territories. The Palestinians have been under economicsiege since Hamas won the elections in March, as most western countries - Israel, the U.S. and Europe - consider Hamas to be a terrorist organization. Since then, Abbas has been trying to construct a unity government with his former party and the Hamas, without success. He publicly announced the negotiations reached a dead end when U.S. State Secretary Condoleezza Rice visited the area.

According to Palestinian law the president announces general elections, but he has no constitutional power to do so before the government's official term is over. According to Al-Quds (linked above), Abbas is practicing his right from the Palestinian Basic Law to protect the people from the Hammas government which, according to him, has increased Palestinian suffering.

More on this later.

Update (12/19/06): The assassination attempt on Haniyeh last Thursday was not the first in the series of violent events taking place in Gaza. Another murder that took place on Monday December 11 might have been the spark that resulted in the most recent civil war in the region.

Three Children Shot Dead

A car that was carrying three children home from school was the target of unknown gunmen. The children , along with the driver, were all shot dead in a lethal drive-by.

The target of the shooting and the father of the children was, according to an AP article published in the Los Angeles Times, "intelligence officer Baha Balousheh, a loyalist of Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas' Fatah Party," who was once "a lead interrogator in a crackdown on the now-ruling Islamic militant Hamas movement." He was far from the scene of crime when the brutal execution took place.

Later that day, Baha Balouseh "blamed the rival Hamas [party], although the Islamic movement denied responsibility and denounced the killings."

The image to the right, taken from Corbis, reads: "Senior intelligence officer Baha Balousheh looks at the body of one of his three sons, who were killed in a drive-by shooting, during their funeral in Gaza City."

The assassination attempt against Hamas' Haniyah took place three days later, on Thursday. Fatah, the organization of both Abbas and Balousheh, was blamed by Fatah officials even though they denied any involvement at the time. In an article that was published today, Ynet reports Hamas militants fought with Fatah Intelligence men.

Tensions Increase

The assassination attempt Thursday was followed by Abbas' provocative speech on Saturday night. In his speech, Abbas bluntly blamed Hamas for the recent Palestinian distress and the economic isolation from Israel, the U.S. and Europe. Abbas, while explaining he exercises his constitutional right of the Palestinian "Basic Law," called for early election. He did not specify a date for these elections.

Tensions between the rival Hamas and Fatah groups flared to street skirmishes after the speech and the assassination, according to CNN:

Fatah and Hamas fighters fought an intense gun battle near Abbas' office in Gaza, leaving a 19-year-old woman dead, medical sources said. Abbas was in the West Bank at the time.
And sources in Fatah's Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigades said that fighters from Hamas' militant wing, Izzedine al Qassam, killed one of their field commanders and kidnapped one of their members.

Heniyah and Abbas, the leaders of the rival Hamas and Fatah groups, met and discussed a ceasefire, which "took effect shortly after midnight Sunday," says the same article. But the truce was broken Monday, with both parties shooting and kidnapping officials of one another. Seven Fatah members and eleven Hamas memebers were kidnapped.

Truce Crumbles

The violence continues in Gaza today , as the truce crumbles. Ynet reported shooting near a hospital in Gaza. Al Jazeera reports:

Rival Palestinians also clashed outside the headquarters of the Fatah-controlled general intelligence agency in Gaza on Tuesday, a Palestinian security source said.

The source said the clash broke out when Hamas gunmen fired a rocket-propelled grenade at the agency's compound in northern Gaza

With Tuesday approaching an end in Gaza, the Palestinians are on the verge of their own civil war.

Timeline

Below is a diagram of the recent chain of events in Gaza. The media at large, as shown above, has connected the last four events together as causes for the recent uprising, but no source - beside Al Quds, above - even mentions the assassination that took place on December 11.
I for one, believe they are strongly related, considering all the facts:




Update: a quick report from Al Jazeera. Both Leaders call for another truce, after the first one has been broken.


Also, take a look at this related post, in which I comment on an in-depth article about Abbas and Haniyeh.

A Short Break

Again, as I have to finish up school projects and assignments, I have to take some time off.
There's a lot going on, and I will post something as soon as I can - probably tonight or tomorrow.
In the meantime, enjoy this picture...